New Zealand and Africa "Ring In The Changes"

But first, the ongoing News Limited issue. As you're all aware, the last lead in submission to my previous post was from a contributor to this site. He read the reply that I posted and had this to say in response:

The point about SKY that I was trying to make was the quality of the product - yes there will still be great movies on show on Sky and there will even be live sport but surely the pay TV product would be reduced if they didn't show all the S14 games? This is the same story with the S14 sans the ABS - yes there will still be a competition and yes there will still be great players to watch but surely the quality of the product is reduced if the ABS aren't on display? Therefore like the subscriber, they have a reason to squeal.

You make an excellent point - broadcast rugby and they people will watch. yes the Tri-Nations was already won but did you watch the AB SA game? I did - and why? Because for all the talk
of fans becoming bored and "too much rugby" we have yet to see a TV viewing public boycott or viewers turning away in droves. Does that mean that News Ltd is right to demand further and further expansion of the rugby competitions - nope but it is a bit rich of the NZRFU and the other unions to cry foul and to say they are acting "in the interests of the game" as their profits soar.

There is no question that the 'product' is being effected by the All Blacks not playing. The difficulty I had with your analogy was simply that it was based on the fact that the product was completely absent from Sky (ie Super 14 games would not be shown). That's not a reduction in quality in terms of Super 14, it is a complete absence of it for half the competition. Super 14 will still be played, there will be good players on show. there will be the same New Zealand franchises fielding teams, people just wont be able to see Reuben Thorne and Scott Hamilton play on tv (if News Limited want to broadcast it)!

This leads in well to the second point that you raise. As I said, broadcast it and they will watch. No doubt about it. I don't believe there is such a thing as too much Rugby (if you're watching it) and have long been an advocate for 10 channels with nothing but rugby on them 24 hours a day! With the extra Rugby available now, to the best of our combined knowledge, there has not been a downturn in viewership. People are not getting bored by it, they want to watch, and News Limited and the NZRFU and other unions are making large amounts of cash out of it.

The issue here, for me, is twofold. Firstly, and less significantly, News Limited are assuming that there will be downturn in viewership because the All Blacks wont be playing. That will not necessarily be the case because seldom do people watch every game that an All Black is playing in. They normally follow their team, or teams they hate(!), and will continue to do so. Many viewers continued to watch the Tri-Nations even though the All Blacks had won it. I will also continue to watch the games between Africa and the Wallabies. Why assume that people will stop watching the Super 14 because the All Black World Cup Squad wont be playing? With the Australian and African franchises likely to do better (at least in the first 7 rounds) perhaps more people in those countries will start watching when their teams win (possibly compensating for viewership declining in NZ as those franchises struggle)!

Secondly, and more importantly the people charged with winning the Rugby World Cup 2007 for New Zealand have stated that they want to rest the All Blacks for the entire competition. They got a compromise from the NZRFU that the players will be rested for 7 rounds. What interest does News Limited have in the All Blacks winning the Rugby World Cup in 2007? None as far as I know.

The NZRFU clearly does have an interest in winning because we all know that the New Zealand rugby watching public will not take another RWC loss well. The cries of "chokers", and "you peak too early" that come from Australia, South Africa, and now even more parts of the world are starting to cut to the quick. The whole country will be covered in a dark cloud of depression for at least three and a half years after any such loss! After that hope, expectation, even certainty that the All Blacks will win the next competition takes over (the arrogance the Australians comment on so much).

Also, the coaching staff have their hands tied in this situation if News Limited takes away a strategic method of preparing for the RWC. They are not able to do what they think is required to give the team the best possibly chance of winning the most important tournament in international rugby. So, New Zealand plays another super 14 with the All Blacks, and win it again. New Zealand plays another Tri-Nations (even more games) with all the All Blacks and win it again. Then New Zealand play another World Cup and lose it again. I would gladly take many Super 14 and Tri-Nations losses if it meant winning the World Cup. In fact, if we never won another Super 14 or Tri-Nations competition, but won every World Cup and Bledisloe Cup, that'd be just fine with me. The World Cup is the pinnacle, the most important of them all. The NZRFU must give the team the best chance to win what matters most. The more you tie the hands of the coaching staff in these sorts of ways, the less responsible they are for the outcome.

As we both said, News Limited and the NZRFU make too much money to let this sort of problem go on for too long. A compromise will be reached as neither can afford to jeopardise the cash cow that the Super 14 and Tri-Nations are. It will be interesting to see what they work out though.

Back to Footy! The ABs have anounced their team. There are some surprises, however not that many that weren't picked in the previous post that I did on this point. Howlett comes in at fullback to allow the two Fijian Flyers to take their places on the wings (Rokocoko and Sivivatu). A pretty potent back three, but there must be some question marks over this untried combination as having Howlett at fgullback didn't work too well for the Blues when they tried it and had Rokocoko and Caucau on the wings.

Mils slots back in at centre and it seems as if this will be the first choice selection position for him. Aaron Mauger returns from injury, and I think we can look to see his defence being questioned by the South African backline. Daniel Carter remains at first five, and this weekend he will be teamed up with Jimmy Cowan who gets his first starting game replacing Piri Weepu.

The forward pack has been substantially altered, however captain fantastic is still the number one choice. The starting loose forward trio have been selected again with So'oialo and Colling joining McCaw. The locks are Chris Jack and Ali Williams are the locking combination. The front row consists of Carl Hayman, Tony Woodcock, and Andrew Hoare.

The reserves are Anton Oliver, Neemia Tialata, Jason Eaton, Marty Holah, Byron Kelleher, Luke McAlister, and Rico Gear. Hopefully the injry count this week will be much reduced from last week but we can expect to see some of the reserves being used this weekend I am sure.

The biesieged Sprinboks have made five changes to their side, and it is reported that no one in South Africa outside of the camp thinks that the changes will make any difference to the result this weekend. Finally Percy Montgomerey has got it in the neck and Jacque Fourie comes into fullback in his place. About time, Percival's kicking game was shocking, but when they ran it the Africans looked better when the game had already been lost.

AJ Venter comes back into the side at Number 8 bringing a wealth of experience. He will be joined by Pierre Spies and Pedrie Wannenburg in the lose. The only other change to the pack is B J Botha coming in for C J van der Linde.

Pretorious starts at first five in place of James and Wynand Olivier comes in to the vacant centre berth left by Fourie's positional change to fullback. Both wingers remain in their positions, howver Paulse has returned to the bench and could see some game time.

It will be interesting to see how they go. They are facing an All Black team that has several key changes from the team they lost to by 19 points last week. It is unlikely that the changes will weaken the All Blacks, but I think that the Africans will be stronger for the changes they have made. They will be desperate to win this game, again, but this time they might actually be able to produce some intensity that lasts the distance. There are concerns over fitness, and if that is true they will be in trouble again. Bring it on I say!